TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,496
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,507

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,496 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks29c1,232$354 inWon+$877.7610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates73c1,075$785 inLost-$784.756055%33 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks48c710.61$342 inWon+$368.588,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Pittsburgh Pirates65c610.68$397 inLost-$396.9421242%89 W · 123 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates20c377$75 inLost-$74.779,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Arizona Diamondbacks35c84.45$29 inWon+$54.9555448.2%267 W · 287 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks45c40.7$18 inWon+$22.2310143.6%44 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c76…6e88backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c34.37$21 inLost-$20.923177.4%24 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Pittsburgh Pirates75c30$23 inLost-$22.61,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona Diamondbacks38c27$10 inWon+$16.741,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Arizona Diamondbacks67c22.04$15 inWon+$7.221,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x998a…802bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates64c19.12$12 inLost-$12.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.45per pick60cpaid-77.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.