MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6bb41dd2bcd67dc254d5a118f90bccddc34827a7479472067f0027624564f70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 610$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 41c | 480.54$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.52 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 473.23$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 40c | 424.28$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 345.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Over | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 66c | 315.09$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Under | 43c | 278.1$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.34 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 56c | 239.06$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.86 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 181.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 58c | 155.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 70c | 131.49$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 116$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 58c | 112.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 48c | 100.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Over | 59c | 83.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…a0adbacked Over | 54c | 82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 57c | 79.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 40c | 79.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 61c | 70.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Over | 41c | 51.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 39c | 47.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 43.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Over | 33c | 42.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Over | 33c | 42.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Over | 33c | 36.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 45c | 33.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Over | 38c | 31.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 58c | 30.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 50c | 28.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 58c | 25.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 60c | 20.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 57c | 20.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Over | 60c | 19.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.