Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7494d41aec8843ffb3346cc58e50ac156c0bbf9acc8a39ec1a424da65ea69778
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,738$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…975abacked Yes | 3c | 1,277$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 1,220$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9990…c1e2backed Yes | 12c | 607.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 6c | 597.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…483bbacked Yes | 3c | 539.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 15c | 404.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 301.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 7c | 276.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 6c | 249.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 236.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 232.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 219.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 8c | 203.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 21c | 189.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 148.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 9c | 134.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 131.75$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 21c | 126.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 20c | 123.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 11c | 106.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 24c | 96.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 30c | 92.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 80c | 87.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 21c | 77.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 74.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 64.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 23c | 55.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed Yes | 23c | 55.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes | 20c | 55.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 20c | 49.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 20c | 49.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 21c | 48.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 79c | 47.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f7…4d7cbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca15…8a46backed No | 76c | 23.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6652…0fc2backed No | 80c | 21.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 78c | 18.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.