TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,894 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x57ee…8112backed No1c3,471$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.811,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked No1c2,941$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9643021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No12c1,461$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1fa…047dbacked No3c1,385$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.939428.7%27 W · 67 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No1c1,226$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.457614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No7c1,106$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1361821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ad6…669ebacked No2c546.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.516610.6%7 W · 59 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7327…64f4backed No6c466.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb977…b5e2backed Yes62c432.1$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.622030%6 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-44.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5f0…cec9backed No5c431.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes57c401.44$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.4389544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No10c313.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.071,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No19c300.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.727,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No4c297.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.112,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c277.93$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.4517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No56c268.12$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.188,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked No5c266.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6257747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes46c249.99$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes53c228.69$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4445148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c226.98$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.382,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes65c226.31$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.525,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No9c225.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes61c214.24$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.5617135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…3304backed No44c210.1$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.959830.6%30 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a05…6782backed No51c200.26$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.141323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb9d…6804backed Yes46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1082119%4 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf565…cb93backed Yes46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1082425%6 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45b3…eed5backed Yes46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1082119%4 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes46c196.21$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.962020%4 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes63c179.76$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3820631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf821…f546backed Yes50c177.87$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.942222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf79…92b6backed Yes46c175$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.52218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes42c148.17$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2225239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1294…cd72backed No56c134.6$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.387266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked No8c133.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.899346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No52c127.47$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4934057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No69c126.77$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1957038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes41c121.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8356131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes39c117.2$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.991,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes39c111.76$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.691,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No62c110.4$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4216548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No55c103.19$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.461,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6727732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes40c99.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.991,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f5f…fa45backed Yes52c99.77$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.891838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33c9…3554backed Yes49c96.34$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.883836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked No56c90.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0219160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No26c89.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6963656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes31c83.62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5942857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No34c82.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.661,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No28c80.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes52c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.441046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No59c76.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc3…b884backed Yes41c71.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.342227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No48c69.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8859440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fb…5fb7backed No59c65.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.646936.2%25 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes56c63.05$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5399961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d78…5678backed Yes48c59.62$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.193834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes55c56.29$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3125344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2444945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba60…8d09backed Yes44c49.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.541546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes44c48.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2711362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes33c47.63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9639535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes41c47.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.762,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes30c42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.47037.1%26 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes54c41.28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0818668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No60c41.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6120942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No74c40.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce34…cf97backed No58c39.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes43c39.54$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5732352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes53c39.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3342130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes40c38.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.974337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes77c37.07$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5910780.4%86 W · 21 L+21.9wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+37.4%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes36c37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6826327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes35c36.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7565043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes53c36.19$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.145438.9%21 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes54c35.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2535133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…52e8backed No52c34.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.662138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x17b3…cf70backed No59c33.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+36%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes70c32.68$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6651321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes31c32.29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.283,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No60c31.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8920353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23e…2623backed No62c31.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.232755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed Yes51c31.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2412226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No63c30.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2683360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes47c30.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0640242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes38c29.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1842544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked No48c28.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6512233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes64c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.976854.4%37 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes48c26.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6918327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6892…fcd6backed No38c26.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103060%18 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe508…5885backed Yes59c25.89$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.667939.2%31 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcce6…dd55backed No58c23.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.771650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No60c22.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3116159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fec…be3dbacked No58c21.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.449056.7%51 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2706…c6bebacked No58c20.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6731866%210 W · 108 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e75…305ebacked No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.411965.5%78 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.