Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f38f97b4a7d5a66f7d472725343cb58124f478101c24b44c2c1768fc7008d22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 3,471$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 1c | 2,941$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 12c | 1,461$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 3c | 1,385$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 1c | 1,226$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 7c | 1,106$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked No | 2c | 546.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 6c | 466.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb977…b5e2backed Yes | 62c | 432.1$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.62 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…cec9backed No | 5c | 431.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 57c | 401.44$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 10c | 313.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 300.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 297.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 277.93$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 268.12$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 5c | 266.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 46c | 249.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 53c | 228.69$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.44 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 226.31$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 225.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 61c | 214.24$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 44c | 210.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…6782backed No | 51c | 200.26$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…6804backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…cb93backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…eed5backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes | 46c | 196.21$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.96 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 63c | 179.76$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf821…f546backed Yes | 50c | 177.87$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…92b6backed Yes | 46c | 175$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 42c | 148.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 56c | 134.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked No | 8c | 133.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 52c | 127.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 69c | 126.77$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 41c | 121.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 117.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 111.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 62c | 110.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 55c | 103.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fa45backed Yes | 52c | 99.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 49c | 96.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 56c | 90.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 26c | 89.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 31c | 83.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 34c | 82.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 80.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b884backed Yes | 41c | 71.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 59c | 65.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 56c | 63.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 48c | 59.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 55c | 56.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba60…8d09backed Yes | 44c | 49.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 44c | 48.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 33c | 47.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 54c | 41.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 60c | 41.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 40.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce34…cf97backed No | 58c | 39.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 43c | 39.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 53c | 39.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 40c | 38.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 77c | 37.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 35c | 36.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 53c | 36.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 54c | 35.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…52e8backed No | 52c | 34.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17b3…cf70backed No | 59c | 33.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 70c | 32.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 32.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 60c | 31.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23e…2623backed No | 62c | 31.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 51c | 31.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 30.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 47c | 30.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 38c | 29.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked No | 48c | 28.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 48c | 26.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 59c | 25.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…dd55backed No | 58c | 23.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 60c | 22.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 58c | 21.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 58c | 20.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.