Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25430c5da51fb7a26e4cee27e844f819cdf29f881b336020babde7682560ffc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb977…b5e2backed Yes | 6c | 66,940$3,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960.9 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…975abacked Yes | 0c | 11,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9990…c1e2backed Yes | 2c | 10,673$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,255$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…ae1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,836$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +93%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 460.85$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 33c | 403.29$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.81 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 65c | 399.69$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 67c | 373.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.97 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 318.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…0b69backed Yes | 29c | 306.38$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 298.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…e109backed Yes | 32c | 293.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 66c | 289.95$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 16c | 235.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.61 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 36c | 209.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 208.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed No | 59c | 193.61$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 192.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 78c | 185.96$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 179.95$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 28c | 176.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 175.3$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 51c | 166.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 162.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 26c | 158.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…6782backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 141.48$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 30c | 133.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 32c | 122.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 122.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 58c | 120.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 58c | 117.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 76c | 116.1$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 115.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 32c | 110.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 56c | 110.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 25c | 105.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 33c | 104.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 52c | 103.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 21c | 99.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 27c | 92.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 16c | 91.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 26c | 89.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 33c | 87.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 39c | 86.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 84.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 65c | 82.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 70c | 78.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 71c | 76.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 73c | 76.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 65c | 73.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 45c | 69.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 68.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 67.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 54c | 67.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 28c | 66.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 66c | 66.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 73c | 65.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 73c | 64.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 27c | 64.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 63.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 59.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 58.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3e06…4664backed Yes | 21c | 56.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 68c | 56.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 57c | 52.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 50.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 50.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 26c | 48.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 26c | 48.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 31c | 47.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 46.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed Yes | 23c | 46.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…ea87backed No | 79c | 45.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 45.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…56a6backed Yes | 35c | 40.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed Yes | 42c | 39.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x871d…a2e9backed No | 75c | 39.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked Yes | 33c | 38.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…71a0backed Yes | 28c | 38.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…2e92backed Yes | 38c | 37.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 72c | 36.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 69c | 36.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 33.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 45c | 33.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 31.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 30.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 75c | 29.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.