Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x749f625f80ab63ccd52e8f942d04b83f7038d0da8344b75628a1e166da2bc297
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Central Arkansas Bearsof Central Arkansas Bears, Bellarmine Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,702 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2643…39aebacked Bellarmine Knights | 52c | 145,169$75,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,498.69 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Central Arkansas Bears | 48c | 130,058$62,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,630.07 | 177 | 42.9%76 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 48c | 9,915$4,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,155.79 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Central Arkansas Bears | 48c | 2,526$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.81 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Bellarmine Knights | 54c | 1,191$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.83 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bellarmine Knights | 26c | 1,119$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.1 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Central Arkansas Bears | 60c | 1,092$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.14 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 47c | 914.34$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.36 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…cb4ebacked Bellarmine Knights | 25c | 635.82$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Central Arkansas Bears | 59c | 570.51$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.41 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Central Arkansas Bears | 48c | 554.86$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.53 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Central Arkansas Bears | 65c | 304.73$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.32 | 155 | 59.4%92 W · 63 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Bellarmine Knights | 5c | 237.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 48c | 210.46$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.44 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…8809backed Central Arkansas Bears | 49c | 202.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Bellarmine Knights | 54c | 183.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Bellarmine Knights | 51c | 159.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Central Arkansas Bears | 48c | 150.62$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Central Arkansas Bears | 46c | 145.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Central Arkansas Bears | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Central Arkansas Bears | 48c | 103.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 322 | 46.6%150 W · 172 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bellarmine Knights | 51c | 98.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…bd58backed Bellarmine Knights | 51c | 97.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Bellarmine Knights | 52c | 95.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Bellarmine Knights | 31c | 73.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 195 | 22.1%43 W · 152 L | -36.3wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 46c | 72.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Bellarmine Knights | 51c | 58.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Central Arkansas Bears | 49c | 50.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed Central Arkansas Bears | 59c | 42.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Bellarmine Knights | 52c | 40.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b1…0666backed Central Arkansas Bears | 57c | 29.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…4108backed Bellarmine Knights | 52c | 28.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca77…f088backed Central Arkansas Bears | 62c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…b137backed Central Arkansas Bears | 49c | 23.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…ec4bbacked Bellarmine Knights | 53c | 22.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 46c | 21.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7241…cb18backed Central Arkansas Bears | 59c | 19.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-7.5)this page
- Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas BearsCentral Arkansas Bears won
- Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas Bears: O/U 155.5Over won
- Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas Bears: O/U 156.5Over won
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-5.5)Central Arkansas Bears won
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-6.5)Central Arkansas Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.