Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa90b46920cd2d6ccb0b92f3578a0e25d889cd505b6fe621ad20cc299c3bad7ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Central Arkansas Bearsof Central Arkansas Bears, Bellarmine Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,294 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Central Arkansas Bears | 54c | 52,715$28,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,377.99 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Bellarmine Knights | 46c | 18,888$8,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,688.48 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Bellarmine Knights | 46c | 15,672$7,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,209.25 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Bellarmine Knights | 47c | 9,907$4,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,656.49 | 177 | 42.9%76 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bellarmine Knights | 46c | 3,478$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.38 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Bellarmine Knights | 47c | 1,916$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.85 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bellarmine Knights | 46c | 1,011$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.06 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Bellarmine Knights | 46c | 382.48$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6846…a82fbacked Bellarmine Knights | 47c | 220.45$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Bellarmine Knights | 48c | 192.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Bellarmine Knights | 47c | 164.78$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 51c | 158.71$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Bellarmine Knights | 46c | 138.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Bellarmine Knights | 47c | 124.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bellarmine Knights | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…0da9backed Bellarmine Knights | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Bellarmine Knights | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Central Arkansas Bears | 53c | 99.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Bellarmine Knights | 49c | 95.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Bellarmine Knights | 47c | 49.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Bellarmine Knights | 46c | 48.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c33…d620backed Central Arkansas Bears | 54c | 45.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b1…0666backed Bellarmine Knights | 50c | 33.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Bellarmine Knights | 46c | 25.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 193 | 48.7%94 W · 99 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d81…360ebacked Bellarmine Knights | 47c | 25.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Bellarmine Knights | 47c | 21.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-6.5)this page
- Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas BearsCentral Arkansas Bears won
- Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas Bears: O/U 155.5Over won
- Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas Bears: O/U 156.5Over won
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-5.5)Central Arkansas Bears won
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-7.5)Central Arkansas Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.