Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas Bears: O/U 155.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd19926abc2a3188f59638e1f50ad74115eca89db65c514cef6d8866f0b84d5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,031 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dc8…da92backed Over | 50c | 9,804$4,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,946.75 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 4,904$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.82 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Under | 52c | 3,582$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.35 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 1,630$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.02 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Over | 48c | 1,225$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.11 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 52c | 1,134$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.35 | 262 | 54.2%142 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 52c | 968.81$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.78 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Over | 51c | 965.66$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.03 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 943.13$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.37 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Over | 50c | 787.21$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.71 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 52c | 464.64$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.33 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Under | 53c | 353.11$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.26 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 48c | 309.77$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.08 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 48c | 289.56$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.57 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 47c | 198.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…8809backed Under | 51c | 194.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Over | 48c | 193.32$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 229 | 50.7%116 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Over | 52c | 190.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 50c | 164.49$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 48c | 103.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 97.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 48c | 72.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Under | 53c | 65.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Over | 49c | 60.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Under | 52c | 57.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Over | 49c | 50.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Over | 48c | 41.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 51c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…48cabacked Under | 54c | 34.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 50c | 31.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b6…5f6ebacked Under | 52c | 31.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…b137backed Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…dc40backed Under | 51c | 29.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Over | 48c | 23.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 48c | 21.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 49c | 21.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas Bears: O/U 155.5this page
- Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas BearsCentral Arkansas Bears won
- Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas Bears: O/U 156.5Over won
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-5.5)Central Arkansas Bears won
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-6.5)Central Arkansas Bears won
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-7.5)Central Arkansas Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.