Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74ab212b96c7cef5a60c0bec83f6c3dcee203c3156ce011d96e424428ac16281
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 73c | 1,710$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.81 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 15c | 367.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 303.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…2406backed No | 32c | 219.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 213.28$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.46 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 176.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 27c | 168.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 157.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…8bbdbacked No | 21c | 146.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 133.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 24c | 133.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 26c | 129.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 129.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 55c | 116.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 110.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 102.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 62c | 102.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked No | 19c | 94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 93.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 16c | 92.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 88.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 83.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 78.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 70.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 26c | 64.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 58c | 57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 31c | 51.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 27c | 49.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 41c | 48.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 44.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 33c | 43.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 74c | 36.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 75c | 30.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 75c | 26.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 22.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 21.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…c843backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.