Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74b560da9135b6777e4b4f5de3562c40a39dff9108072a170016c96a798a5593
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 1,086$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed Yes | 4c | 769.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 514.21$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.41 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 39c | 473.03$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.16 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2406…0debbacked No | 78c | 429.09$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 18c | 364.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 66c | 320$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.87 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 20c | 265$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 40c | 157$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 18c | 122.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 49c | 79.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…1e02backed No | 77c | 76.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 28c | 72.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed No | 69c | 66.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 23c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 63c | 63.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 58.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf827…d4cdbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b22…9665backed Yes | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 65c | 21.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on April 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.