Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Lehecka (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74fb01feef0158b3b31e103f5d393a0980e75120b3dd96eb4720ea3ef4b9af5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auger-Aliassimeof Auger-Aliassime, Lehecka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Lehecka | 63c | 2,365$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Auger-Aliassime | 41c | 2,246$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.26 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Lehecka | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…d4d3backed Auger-Aliassime | 48c | 437.46$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.57 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Auger-Aliassime | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lehecka | 53c | 311.16$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.26 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Lehecka | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…ec00backed Lehecka | 43c | 261.8$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 97 | 38.1%37 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Auger-Aliassime | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Auger-Aliassime | 45c | 213.2$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.26 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…8b73backed Lehecka | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 37c | 125$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Auger-Aliassime | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Auger-Aliassime | 45c | 90.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Lehecka | 59c | 85.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 418 | 46.2%193 W · 225 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3113…223ebacked Lehecka | 55c | 76.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Auger-Aliassime | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 255 | 46.3%118 W · 137 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Auger-Aliassime | 45c | 69.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Lehecka | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 310 | 39.4%122 W · 188 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Lehecka | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7607…85debacked Auger-Aliassime | 49c | 61.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…22ccbacked Auger-Aliassime | 45c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Auger-Aliassime | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Lehecka | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Lehecka | 54c | 42.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabaa…62a5backed Auger-Aliassime | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…0fe0backed Lehecka | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdab…edeebacked Auger-Aliassime | 67c | 20.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Lehecka | 55c | 18.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Lehecka (+1.5)this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Lehecka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jiri LeheckaFelix Auger-Aliassime won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Jiri Lehecka: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs LeheckaAuger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.