Tennis · resolved market
San Marino: Francesco Maestrelli vs Lukas Neumayer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x752a3345af0cb7558f1352009862ec02da3e547724de8c8f384ca48d6bc586ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Francesco Maestrelliof Francesco Maestrelli, Lukas Neumayer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8201…8a41backed Francesco Maestrelli | 68c | 75,000$51,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,000 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Lukas Neumayer | 32c | 68,775$22,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,008 | 1,217 | 46.3%563 W · 654 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Lukas Neumayer | 13c | 8,543$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lukas Neumayer | 33c | 4,329$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.08 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Francesco Maestrelli | 64c | 1,840$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.42 | 4,602 | 67.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L | +309.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Francesco Maestrelli | 73c | 1,752$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.51 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Francesco Maestrelli | 32c | 1,557$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.01 | 307 | 39.1%120 W · 187 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Lukas Neumayer | 54c | 1,485$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 146 | 51.4%75 W · 71 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Lukas Neumayer | 68c | 1,444$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.74 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lukas Neumayer | 30c | 891.36$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.47 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Francesco Maestrelli | 33c | 727$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.23 | 5,009 | 41.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L | -82.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Lukas Neumayer | 13c | 424.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 145 | 36.6%53 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Lukas Neumayer | 37c | 417.17$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.37 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked Lukas Neumayer | 18c | 388.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 310 | 35.2%109 W · 201 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Francesco Maestrelli | 77c | 315.16$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 2,069 | 46.7%966 W · 1,103 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0c…7047backed Lukas Neumayer | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 256 | 33.6%86 W · 170 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Lukas Neumayer | 32c | 282.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 2,839 | 47.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…794dbacked Lukas Neumayer | 11c | 175.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Lukas Neumayer | 26c | 175$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 1,766 | 45.9%810 W · 956 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…8ef6backed Lukas Neumayer | 29c | 101.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Lukas Neumayer | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 950 | 47.7%453 W · 497 L | +34.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…a656backed Lukas Neumayer | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Francesco Maestrelli | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Lukas Neumayer | 33c | 96.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 1,254 | 52.1%653 W · 601 L | +45.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Lukas Neumayer | 32c | 95.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 431 | 44.8%193 W · 238 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Lukas Neumayer | 53c | 95.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Lukas Neumayer | 38c | 84.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 71c | 79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Francesco Maestrelli | 64c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1,877 | 59.4%1,115 W · 762 L | +8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Lukas Neumayer | 27c | 61.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Francesco Maestrelli | 62c | 61.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 3,155 | 57.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L | +176.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed Lukas Neumayer | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -18.8wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Lukas Neumayer | 38c | 47.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,878 | 53.2%1,000 W · 878 L | +30.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Lukas Neumayer | 34c | 46.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1,824 | 46.5%849 W · 975 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa199…b5b0backed Lukas Neumayer | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Lukas Neumayer | 68c | 34.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 208 | 66.3%138 W · 70 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Francesco Maestrelli | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 70c | 24.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 235 | 30.2%71 W · 164 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Marino: Francesco Maestrelli vs Lukas Neumayerthis page
- Set Handicap: Neumayer (-1.5) vs Maestrelli (+1.5)Maestrelli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.