Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x752cc3162be4883689ce379a9712bbbfffe0b6ea2d1c2cb5a307e10e08d46010
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 3c | 1,134$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 14c | 720.53$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 14c | 694.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.26 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 78c | 370.32$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes | 64c | 346.48$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 51c | 268.86$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.88 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 250.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 15c | 207$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 189.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966e…2ad5backed Yes | 23c | 171.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 55c | 143.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 41c | 133.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 113.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…f795backed Yes | 33c | 101.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 43c | 96.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…a680backed No | 48c | 91.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 88.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 24c | 87.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…2722backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 79.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed No | 64c | 78.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 76.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 24c | 65.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…9d96backed No | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…dc5fbacked Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…eb79backed Yes | 46c | 49.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 48.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 46c | 46.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 48c | 42.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e4…1377backed Yes | 30c | 39.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 52c | 32.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 63c | 31.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…047abacked Yes | 52c | 27.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 57c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on February 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.