Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x776dfb3296f2a09cc7f388c55f5ca32c1c478b6e36636dd9a5a1fca34209e5f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 7c | 792.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 15c | 597.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8121…5229backed Yes | 30c | 428.5$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 22c | 332.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed No | 75c | 316$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 24c | 293$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed Yes | 23c | 219.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.33per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 12c | 217.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed No | 52c | 217.3$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 61c | 182.47$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 149.17$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 125.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 18c | 124.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 41c | 122.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 16c | 113.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 65c | 113.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 25c | 108.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 104.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 37c | 100.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 12c | 97.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 95.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 94.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 47c | 91.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 34c | 85.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 25c | 79.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 15c | 70.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…7353backed Yes | 46c | 56.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed Yes | 22c | 53.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…3a89backed Yes | 31c | 45.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…fa5cbacked Yes | 27c | 45.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f10…2033backed No | 78c | 40.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…97efbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 80c | 30.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 78c | 30.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…d843backed Yes | 35c | 28.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 77c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on February 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.