Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75371102c73d61a98f98128182d2955ba8c5bd07f823a79782a9c191355df6ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 50c | 2,581$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.55 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 35c | 2,446$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.74 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…7c99backed Yes | 62c | 1,044$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.86 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.99 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 2c | 999.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.86 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 30c | 849.5$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.33 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 23c | 803.44$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.35 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 592.7$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 580.52$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 4c | 560$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.4 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 6c | 540.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.71 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 73c | 479$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.23 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 476.24$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 13c | 455.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 451.13$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 4c | 327.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 36c | 277.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 268.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 32c | 265.33$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed No | 7c | 223.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 9c | 221.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed No | 38c | 174.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 61c | 172.49$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 170.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 165.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 20c | 154.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 48c | 151.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 35c | 149.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 41c | 141.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 132.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 128.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 38c | 125.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 44c | 120.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 108.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 37c | 104.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 54c | 99.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 45c | 85.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…b72ebacked Yes | 80c | 84.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 50c | 67.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes | 35c | 57.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 20c | 53.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 61c | 52.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 51.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 71c | 49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ab…d485backed Yes | 45c | 32.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 50cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 77c | 30.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…4c39backed Yes | 68c | 25.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 71c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 73c | 13.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.