Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55ac5f7f4ccb809f7738b904fd29373268e14ffbdd3993637694776a1c87b587
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,112$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 2c | 951.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 763.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 592.7$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 526.1$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 456.94$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 445.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 406.95$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 48c | 326.78$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.75 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 5c | 306.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 298$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 274.48$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 250$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 22c | 237.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 222.66$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 47c | 222$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 170$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 51c | 166$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 157.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 58c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 148.73$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 147.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 54c | 130.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 120.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 120.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 13c | 120.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 28c | 119.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 43c | 115.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 114.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 108.77$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 55c | 108.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 106$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 48c | 104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 38c | 101.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 56c | 99.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 71c | 96.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 91.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 76c | 90.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 38c | 87.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 86.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 45c | 83.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 70c | 81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 48c | 80.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 48c | 76.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 28c | 71.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cae…d2aebacked Yes | 42c | 71.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 59.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed No | 53c | 58.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb395…522bbacked Yes | 44c | 54.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 51c | 53.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…c224backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…ca89backed Yes | 59c | 49.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 38c | 42.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 50c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 43c | 39.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…72bcbacked Yes | 53c | 37.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 48c | 36.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 43c | 36.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 39c | 31.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 29.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…e184backed Yes | 40c | 28.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 53c | 28.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c37…e1e7backed No | 64c | 26.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b62…e627backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 24.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4b…f395backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 21.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.