Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f7a42f0973fb2fd3112f84adf28e96134989c1ee06dfebe2bd92f2e9f06aaf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 31c | 2,087$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.8 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,261$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.79 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 935.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 48c | 799.85$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.54 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 592.7$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 587.37$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed Yes | 19c | 547.83$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 18c | 473.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 391.47$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.9 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 384.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 356.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 9c | 326.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 299.96$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 276.56$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 11c | 270.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 250$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 234.39$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 225$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 21c | 201$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 179$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 172.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 20c | 170$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 22c | 154.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 148.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 22c | 147.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 31c | 146.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 19c | 135.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 128.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 60c | 122.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 10c | 120.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 44c | 118$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 114.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 26c | 111.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 29c | 110.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 102.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2ba5backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 71c | 98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 94.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 47c | 88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 74.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 56c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…fec5backed Yes | 45c | 69.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 67.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b62…e627backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 57.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 73c | 54.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 68c | 53.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 54c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 48.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 48.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 48.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 47.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 43c | 46.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe9…71cdbacked Yes | 25c | 43.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 40.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 38.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 54c | 37.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 37.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 55c | 36.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 25.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 79c | 23.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 18.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 75c | 14.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.