Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7537f8e94b96a0a0a316fd9e8692482d1d16063e322befd514176abe9319b45a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,971 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a1c…73f1backed No | 1c | 1,301$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 7c | 499.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked No | 3c | 409.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 405.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 4c | 347.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 21c | 326.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 8c | 294.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 12c | 291.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked Yes | 79c | 272.37$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 80c | 236.33$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 7c | 230.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 7c | 220.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 9c | 203.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 199.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 6c | 189.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 12c | 177$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 21c | 165$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 32c | 154.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…3173backed No | 21c | 132.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 128.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 16c | 119.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316c…0194backed Yes | 25c | 115$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac5…b17cbacked Yes | 76c | 113.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 78c | 94.2$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…e6bfbacked No | 17c | 88.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…ed52backed No | 15c | 79.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb5…d90bbacked Yes | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b52…6d8cbacked No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 65c | 48.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…7af3backed Yes | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 80c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed Yes | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 66c | 25.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e1…79c7backed Yes | 79c | 20.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 80c | 20.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.