Ukraine · resolved market
Crimean bridge hit before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7555cd6e539135d2ffb061c4772e61d731dc4a104b2a4e882b56b9c41ad0ceaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 0c | 49,960$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 1c | 8,789$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 2c | 8,141$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.88 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 2c | 4,580$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…2480backed Yes | 7c | 2,324$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3921…0cf4backed Yes | 2c | 1,470$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 7c | 987.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 4c | 723.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 7c | 679.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…0f38backed Yes | 6c | 501.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +163.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 4c | 469.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc611…0f9cbacked Yes | 6c | 362.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3634…310dbacked Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 5c | 234.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63d1…bad1backed Yes | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…3622backed Yes | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.