Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75700f135fc1aa9106eecad102e82a5e304afa684948c453d9020973a6dacda6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 1c | 5,338$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 1c | 3,403$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 3,356$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 4c | 1,943$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…437cbacked No | 2c | 1,410$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,178$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…edfbbacked No | 6c | 660$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed No | 3c | 515.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa580…b99abacked No | 5c | 482.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 4c | 419.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes | 56c | 232.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 7c | 229.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…12a8backed No | 8c | 220.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 33c | 196.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.63 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 69c | 194.1$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f54ebacked Yes | 39c | 148.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.33 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 121.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 112.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 99.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…4732backed Yes | 37c | 97.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 93.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 27c | 74.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…b3c7backed Yes | 30c | 58.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…709ebacked Yes | 40c | 56.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 29c | 56.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed No | 78c | 54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 50.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 69c | 49.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 34c | 49.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 38c | 43.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…526dbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed18…39d9backed No | 76c | 42.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1e…c6a1backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 75c | 37.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb93c…b4a2backed Yes | 30c | 36.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 35.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…f46fbacked Yes | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…0cbdbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…c289backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…be2dbacked Yes | 39c | 25.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 45c | 22.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…c88bbacked No | 76c | 22.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…10fabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce7…2d6bbacked No | 77c | 17.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 68c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C or below on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C or higher on January 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.