Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cb3b76b6a4c3fdc6f933464859626df576eaf3e3e404ead3e75056fd48c04f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e13…2ac4backed Yes | 58c | 429.62$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 53c | 392.28$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.29 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked No | 53c | 215.74$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 44c | 183.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.47 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118c…74c5backed Yes | 58c | 171.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 61c | 169.73$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 42c | 160.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…adcebacked Yes | 51c | 159.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 49c | 157.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 47c | 140.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked Yes | 47c | 128.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 41c | 105.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 46c | 103.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…4732backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes | 52c | 93.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 50c | 92.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…e079backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 69c | 89.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 50c | 89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 48c | 74.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…dc0cbacked No | 60c | 73.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 36c | 68.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 67.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 60c | 57.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0a36backed No | 44c | 57.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 48c | 55.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 51c | 55.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 47c | 55.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 45c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 46c | 49.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…35dfbacked Yes | 57c | 46.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…8fe0backed No | 49c | 46.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 52c | 44.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 43.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 41.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…f46fbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 47c | 38.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 38.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…e072backed No | 66c | 38.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb93c…b4a2backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee77…7c01backed Yes | 39c | 30.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked No | 66c | 30.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…871dbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…728bbacked Yes | 55c | 29.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 54c | 29.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed18…39d9backed No | 48c | 29.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 57c | 29.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 45c | 27.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…a28ebacked No | 58c | 26.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…e117backed Yes | 57c | 25.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…bab7backed Yes | 46c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed No | 54c | 21.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 50c | 20.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf5…83ddbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C or below on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C or higher on January 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.