Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Tearlaments (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x757017c6205e87cbedea4dd2a89ebbd3a1a9fdbf69f7333f1434cdae25c29457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Tearlaments
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked Tearlaments | 0c | 6,450$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Tearlaments | 8c | 5,423$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.49 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Tearlaments | 13c | 4,858$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.57 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3445…d229backed Tearlaments | 2c | 4,600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tearlaments | 4c | 3,663$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.26 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tearlaments | 8c | 2,271$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.46 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Tearlaments | 3c | 1,978$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Tearlaments | 13c | 1,777$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.16 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…51f7backed Tearlaments | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tearlaments | 12c | 1,213$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.59 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Tearlaments | 11c | 821.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Tearlaments | 13c | 817$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Tearlaments | 3c | 616.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Tearlaments | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Tearlaments | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…41d5backed Tearlaments | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…d8b5backed Tearlaments | 6c | 467.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tearlaments | 5c | 406.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Tearlaments | 13c | 399.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Tearlaments | 12c | 377.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -14.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Tearlaments | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf948…3c5fbacked Tearlaments | 4c | 279.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Tearlaments | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Tearlaments | 9c | 150.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Tearlaments | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…abc9backed Tearlaments | 20c | 87.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Tearlaments | 14c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.