MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75ab02f93b10decb86c3fd948ba6ab2238ce2a1fc88202ca9f8f91ac851082e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 56c | 16,910$9,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,489.12 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 42c | 5,570$2,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.07 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 4,403$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.55 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 3,231$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 42c | 3,094$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.09 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 43c | 1,170$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.74 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 46c | 706.95$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.55 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 35c | 561.94$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.47 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 32c | 559.24$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked Under | 24c | 539.52$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 62c | 498$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.76 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 495.7$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.42 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 405.85$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.31 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 62c | 358.7$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 43c | 267.24$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.09 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 48c | 232$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 57c | 141.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 51c | 119.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…650bbacked Over | 44c | 113.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 21c | 89.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 46c | 87.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 53c | 61.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Under | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 43c | 59.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 40c | 57.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 58c | 57.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 41c | 56.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 52c | 51.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 47.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 36c | 45.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Over | 41c | 41.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 76c | 38.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 45c | 36.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 41c | 34.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 50c | 31.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 60c | 29.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Under | 59c | 29.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 60c | 18.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…e18ebacked Over | 64c | 18.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. AthleticsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.