MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9edbd060da374d6ffde21e1fd60ebbbc0f16b7089a72c3ca7f2e3c4fe08ca1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Athletics, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 4,000$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.19 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Athletics | 47c | 2,580$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.77 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 1,108$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.34 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 34c | 884.14$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 48c | 501.91$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.86 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…a58fbacked Athletics | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Athletics | 55c | 496.07$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.46 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 454.81$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.93 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 402.94$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 257.96$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.81 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Athletics | 34c | 232.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 217.65$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Athletics | 39c | 194.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 174$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Athletics | 21c | 144.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Athletics | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Athletics | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 37c | 127.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Athletics | 61c | 126.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Athletics | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 113.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Athletics | 38c | 101.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 78.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Athletics | 54c | 74.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Athletics | 40c | 73.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Athletics | 36c | 71.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 71.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Athletics | 46c | 69.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Athletics | 50c | 62.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Athletics | 63c | 62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Athletics | 34c | 56.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Athletics | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 50.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 49.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Athletics | 66c | 41.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 39.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics | 62c | 39.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Athletics | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 31.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 29.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 25.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 23.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Athletics | 51c | 20.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed Cleveland Guardians | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. AthleticsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.