Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-02-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75d0a2e4a67cabf1fb7bfc9a5bd018f5ec898fe5ed3d645811f6c9cdf617d08d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 2c | 16,982$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.53 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 17c | 7,216$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.37 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 5,324$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.51 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 27c | 5,138$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.28 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 74c | 4,650$3,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.99 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 73c | 4,000$2,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe348…a303backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,968$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…f6dcbacked Yes | 28c | 1,429$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 27c | 1,294$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 7c | 1,158$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 2c | 1,135$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 26c | 1,031$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.25 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 26c | 858.78$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.28 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 73c | 600$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 9c | 442.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 26c | 431.03$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 9c | 410.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 27c | 360$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 73c | 332.99$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.91 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 16c | 154$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes | 16c | 124.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc513…ffe7backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…0139backed No | 73c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 92.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x228c…0fb0backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 30 | 93.3%28 W · 2 L | +7.8wins | +0.26per pick | 67cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 73c | 50.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 27c | 48.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ab…7193backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 39.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…8222backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 72c | 26.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 73c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-02-08?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.