Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19c5077009913d44ef9b808a34a7ac611f65d76280bc5040fc9ea7f15e6ae654
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 6c | 2,978$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.06 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 38c | 2,177$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…0de9backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 62c | 1,895$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.79 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 1,779$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.83 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 23c | 1,678$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.49 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 76c | 989$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.36 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 79c | 639.21$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.81 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 425$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.97 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 75c | 372$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 308.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 80c | 301$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 76c | 296.14$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 22c | 295.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe968…de6fbacked No | 76c | 234.21$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | 0%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 23c | 174.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Yes | 12c | 171.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 17c | 160.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 29c | 147.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 77c | 109.5$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 95.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes | 33c | 87.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…a29dbacked Yes | 25c | 59.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 22c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 57.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…c35dbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…05f2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 76c | 37.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…5b77backed No | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…2381backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 76c | 25.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…4f81backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-02-08?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.