Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75d4fa120ac90ba8e860692ad5e15e98263071f600730cf3b94af4dff6182165
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 56c | 436.36$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.93 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 36c | 278.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 251.94$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 248.76$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 221$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 27c | 202.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 171$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.93 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 19c | 159.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.34 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 26c | 135.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 131.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.39 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 121.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 117.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 71c | 111$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 103.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 23c | 102.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 100.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 32c | 94.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 22c | 93.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 58c | 85.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 31c | 71.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 68.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xbda2…97ebbacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf29c…9559backed Yes | 42c | 59.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 59.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 23c | 57.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 56c | 57.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…ad75backed Yes | 66c | 56.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 47.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 54c | 46.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…fae8backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 34.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 63c | 30.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 77c | 26.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 59c | 24.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 21.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…fa77backed No | 76c | 21.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 16.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 78c | 13.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 85°F or below on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.