Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x858ffd2d39f370dfdf4b652ff0841fd11c950791c8e7b5b81b4ac74403b30b73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 16c | 560.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 21c | 314.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c1…22e4backed Yes | 25c | 299.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 290.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 22c | 267.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 25c | 241.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 203.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 199.54$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 148.61$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7a…59a2backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 122.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a8…0cecbacked Yes | 27c | 112.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 28c | 111.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 19c | 104.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 95.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed No | 79c | 92.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 81.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 75c | 80.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 73.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 59.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 74c | 57.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 47.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 78c | 38.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 77c | 31.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…89a1backed No | 74c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 75c | 23.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 21.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked No | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 85°F or below on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on May 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.