TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,329 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa7f3…d56cbacked Yes2c9,470$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes4c6,124$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.2351321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c1,261$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.3312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5e…4033backed Yes28c1,190$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.012119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-62.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd75…d07ebacked No64c985.25$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.1815433.8%52 W · 102 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes29c976.72$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.855,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes39c839.74$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.1619047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes20c776.31$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.592330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2232…e889backed Yes10c499.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.616529.1%48 W · 117 L+12.9wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+62.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d78…e218backed Yes32c470.3$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.353112.9%4 W · 27 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-78.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No78c441.72$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.1742857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes24c410.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0732818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes23c395.93$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.836747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x681b…8a5abacked Yes36c392.12$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.94742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882f…5967backed Yes32c347.7$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.693414.7%5 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-61.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x0e66…52f5backed Yes16c339.35$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.616720.9%14 W · 53 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes19c338.33$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.597,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c324.48$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a99…e614backed Yes13c249.32$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6618116.6%30 W · 151 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes18c209.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.161,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes23c207.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.851,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed No69c206.33$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5946733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes9c187.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5986226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes24c144.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2840525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes23c135.79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.616832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked No78c127.41$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6225449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes16c121.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.648623.3%20 W · 66 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb666…8f47backed Yes25c119.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.834535.6%16 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No60c116.04$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6399961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes29c112.93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.441,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes25c110$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.515545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes19c109.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4349038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No80c109.18$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1711569.6%80 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick69cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes32c105.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.069,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes27c100.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8952322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes13c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.524921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…3304backed Yes15c93.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.129830.6%30 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c86.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.293,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes30c81.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.253013.3%4 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-52.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c80.3$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.212,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes39c77.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2830131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed Yes37c76.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.19333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.751729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c74.27$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.28,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes24c72.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.566848.5%33 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes29c72.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.138531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc50…2af3backed Yes31c69.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.262157.1%12 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No72c65.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.351,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes31c63.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6986847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffe0…919ebacked No74c63.1$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.217758.4%45 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes34c59.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1929640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes55c55.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6611546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes54c54.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0412147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a24…2015backed No72c52.71$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes51c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.351,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes26c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes29c49.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.411341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2df9…effbbacked No73c48.7$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1211659.5%69 W · 47 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99d9…d6f3backed Yes26c48.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No64c47.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.871,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes47c47.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.081,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes31c46.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4327732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked Yes33c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8531262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No72c44.62$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.349,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes29c41.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes38c41.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8111038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No71c41.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.062,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc931…7d46backed No53c41.23$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2114158.2%82 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed No74c41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8324841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c63…fafebacked Yes56c40.54$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.72828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No70c38.63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.491,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No71c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.38366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3506…ad95backed No67c34.82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.594355.8%24 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No72c34.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4442469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x487d…6813backed Yes34c31.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.486142.6%26 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No69c30.53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.362,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.460236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No72c29.15$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1854966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed No71c29.13$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4934934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2598…17dfbacked No75c28.01$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.061675%12 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes70c26.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3961659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe744…67a8backed No66c25.07$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5215477.9%120 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de8…0e79backed No68c24.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.89980.8%80 W · 19 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4453…2b6bbacked No77c23.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4213081.5%106 W · 24 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8cc4…4ef0backed No65c23.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.134946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c67…5f7ebacked No70c21.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.471163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814953.7%80 W · 69 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No70c19.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9976371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d54…7e8ebacked No66c19.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No70c19.83$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0517570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fec…be3dbacked No74c16.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.419056.7%51 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba6e…e245backed No79c15.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.268676.7%66 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.