Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc33abb26150b5262160f094efea7e57487a8312b217e78d2428c1c81fb2c4f89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed No | 0c | 8,014$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,954$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.36 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 1,107$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed Yes | 61c | 1,037$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.12 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 938.78$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 66c | 634.19$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.4 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 32c | 602.3$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.12 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 76c | 500$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 446.83$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 431.13$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 44c | 399.47$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.51 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 43c | 311.76$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.33 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 47c | 297.73$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.27 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 32c | 236.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 49c | 232.24$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.71 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 13c | 217.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 56c | 171.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 16c | 165.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 156.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 65c | 156.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 64c | 155.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 54c | 153.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 150.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 144.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 23c | 142.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 70c | 139.53$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 53c | 129.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 66c | 129.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 54c | 127.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 77c | 126.82$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 65c | 123.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed No | 21c | 122.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 120.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a24…2015backed Yes | 55c | 119.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed No | 13c | 119.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 37c | 116.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 45c | 114.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 36c | 107.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 42c | 98.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed No | 61c | 95.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…6938backed No | 49c | 92.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x673b…9b4ebacked Yes | 45c | 92.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 45c | 85.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked Yes | 75c | 77.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 47c | 75.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 58c | 75.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 45c | 73.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 47c | 69.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 53c | 69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…52d1backed No | 57c | 67.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 50c | 64.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 61.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…4a8fbacked No | 31c | 60.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 72c | 55.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 62c | 54.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 66c | 54.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 21c | 52.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 60c | 51.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…31b9backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 39c | 49.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 57c | 48.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…a265backed Yes | 49c | 46.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 44c | 45.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…0201backed No | 35c | 45.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 53c | 45.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 48c | 44.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 42.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 49c | 42.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 67c | 42.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 77c | 40.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…6c14backed No | 31c | 40.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 62c | 39.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 46c | 38.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 77c | 38.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe185…541fbacked Yes | 50c | 38.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3f0ebacked Yes | 46c | 37.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 33c | 37.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 50c | 37.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…d860backed Yes | 42c | 36.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 31c | 36.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed Yes | 51c | 36.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 67c | 35.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 78c | 35.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 55c | 35.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78b…52f1backed No | 63c | 33.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 47c | 32.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 32.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 61c | 31.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 48c | 31.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 30.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 76c | 30.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…5f7ebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 43c | 29.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 55c | 28.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or below on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.