MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75e60b8987fa43bc8242c795d611f6b7002321e8b291488da23fed83993ca379
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 45c | 45,487$20,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,017.64 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 15,698$8,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,633.82 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 9,607$5,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,283.87 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 55c | 8,533$4,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,693.15 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 501 | 52.5%263 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 1,479$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.45 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 55c | 910.35$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.16 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 733.52$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.66 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 55c | 697.73$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.75 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 55c | 608.29$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.56 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 55c | 595$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.25 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 526.87$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.37 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 55c | 482.27$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.25 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 55c | 426$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.3 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 44c | 343.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.66 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 320$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 55c | 271$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.05 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 19c | 196.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 57c | 192.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 43c | 188$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.94 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 56c | 159$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 151.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…a690backed Over | 18c | 136.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 16c | 124$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…2d41backed Under | 60c | 49.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 55c | 22.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 54c | 21.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 383 | 42%161 W · 222 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.