MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x512fdeda6b07d364649a490c2f5112bc19f65a8215b490f5c0417099e9b90ef9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals | 66c | 2,344$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.32 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 2,053$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.24 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 700$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 79c | 691.95$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.1 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 15c | 653.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 600.91$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.44 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 451.21$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.11 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 354.33$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 48c | 327.23$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.1 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 284.9$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.09 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 197.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…f35fbacked Kansas City Royals | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 173.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 98.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12de…bb0fbacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6818…8f14backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ede…e99cbacked Minnesota Twins | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 76c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 74.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 69.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 59.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 46.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 39.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 36.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 36.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf8…5d40backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 33.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 29.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Kansas City Royals | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 20.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Kansas City Royals | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.