MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eb1bd203708364bae1f57baaf9a7dae47a602ba5574f4518db0d2efa33f73c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 56c | 238,664$133,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105,012.1 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 44c | 227,272$100,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99,999.67 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 45c | 4,540$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 44c | 4,403$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.67 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 55c | 3,926$2,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.52 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 44c | 2,730$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.2 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 2,414$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.65 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 56c | 1,928$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.21 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…af95backed Over | 44c | 1,883$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 1,558$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.85 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 1,082$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.14 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 55c | 639.99$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 45c | 502.99$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.35 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 55c | 472.87$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.79 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…1fadbacked Under | 55c | 287.75$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.49 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 45c | 227.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.18 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f45…e6a7backed Under | 56c | 133.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Under | 56c | 133.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…a690backed Over | 12c | 128.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Under | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 55c | 121.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 11c | 119$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 103.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 44c | 102.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 45c | 92.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 57c | 78.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 57c | 63.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 61.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Under | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Under | 57c | 36.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Under | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.