MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x761fede5f8a17b642e157d25709ce2ef9e3ab911b84e342f8be48ea818f4bbc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x284d…59f7backed Over | 59c | 1,600$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.19 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 850.27$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 63c | 600.65$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 586.42$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 50c | 517.89$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.51 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 68c | 441.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.32 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 43c | 425.53$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.98 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 37c | 327$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.79 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Over | 76c | 263.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 40c | 246$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 37c | 176.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 40c | 123.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 115.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 26c | 110$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.88 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 70.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 45c | 66.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 45c | 44.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 39c | 41.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 44c | 40.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 58c | 34.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 42c | 32.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 51c | 27.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 24.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…4770backed Over | 66c | 17.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Athletics won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. AthleticsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.