MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7450215448981b8e839273fb0fb7decf1ff3872082815462d22f5774afca989a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 77c | 2,459$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.86 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 46c | 1,928$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.77 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 54c | 1,733$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.76 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 1,674$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.97 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 23c | 462.96$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 54c | 398.15$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 53c | 322.16$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.42 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 46c | 319.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.19 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 302.08$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.98 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 25c | 210$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Over | 63c | 199.4$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 48c | 198.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 24c | 163.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 160.71$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 22c | 152.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 118.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 77c | 101$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Under | 37c | 83.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 74c | 64.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 23c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Under | 37c | 49.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Under | 37c | 49.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Under | 37c | 49.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Over | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca15…0550backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 80c | 24.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Over | 76c | 22.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 47c | 22.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked Over | 54c | 21.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 19.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Athletics won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. AthleticsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.