MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2a67611e05266edf2de324e70c9fbb8586a661044f294dc9c5d37afa31055f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 78c | 2,089$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 18c | 1,675$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.69 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 1,306$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.41 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics | 42c | 1,044$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Athletics | 23c | 652$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.44 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 453.31$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.02 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 390.28$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.82 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 15c | 360.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Athletics | 43c | 350$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…20e8backed Athletics | 16c | 311$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Athletics | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…650bbacked Athletics | 43c | 231.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…09d0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 192.05$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Athletics | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Athletics | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Athletics | 21c | 99.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Athletics | 40c | 55.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Athletics | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 23.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Athletics won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. AthleticsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.