Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7624b62502479676cccab327d62b5497ff07c26af6d8156ca21bc7719cd79ee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 5c | 1,102$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 52c | 339.97$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.95 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 303.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 141.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 67c | 134.13$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 41c | 120.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 102$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 38c | 91.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 91.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 38c | 85.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 82.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 42c | 69.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 63.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 31c | 56.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 51.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 29c | 51.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…75fabacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 49c | 49.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 39c | 47.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 60c | 45.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 43.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 53c | 40.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 38.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…b0ffbacked Yes | 55c | 36.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 46c | 34.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 34.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 32.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 31.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 64c | 31.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 30.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed Yes | 59c | 30.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Yes | 48c | 26.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…0ae2backed Yes | 60c | 25.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafdb…319dbacked Yes | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…88d2backed Yes | 46c | 21.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c53…b033backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 60c | 17.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 76c | 13.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.