Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6cd27d1b1539cae4c6ab56b345e897a01678b7de3c71f201da227e45653f21f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 62c | 751.79$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.06 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 23c | 354.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 343.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 301.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 167.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 37c | 151.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 150.4$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 35c | 141.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 39c | 128.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 12c | 115$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 112$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 37c | 109$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 69c | 108.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 106.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aef…e9a1backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 37c | 93.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 85.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…3eabbacked Yes | 38c | 85.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 66c | 76.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 76.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 33c | 67.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 64c | 66.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 31c | 61.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 61.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 56.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 67c | 54.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…96cbbacked Yes | 36c | 52.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 38c | 52.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 38c | 50.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 50.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 47.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 66c | 44.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 63c | 43.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 37c | 40.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 36c | 39.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 28c | 37.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 36c | 33.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 32.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 79c | 30.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 27.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 27.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 23.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 22.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.