Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Cazaux vs Cameron Norrie
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x768e3104753c6d7db8d85860924666523ae0d37f3522c53e1c4f99019b60b9a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norrieof Cazaux, Norrie
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6937…085dbacked Cazaux | 49c | 36,195$17,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,793.42 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Norrie | 51c | 21,569$10,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,581.92 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Norrie | 45c | 10,000$4,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,500.98 | 672 | 49.6%333 W · 339 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cazaux | 50c | 6,036$3,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,008.41 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Norrie | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cazaux | 55c | 1,688$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.03 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6c…2912backed Norrie | 52c | 1,628$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Norrie | 50c | 1,555$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.5 | 375 | 40.8%153 W · 222 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Norrie | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Norrie | 52c | 1,351$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.66 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Cazaux | 50c | 1,267$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.27 | 365 | 40.8%149 W · 216 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Cazaux | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.15 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Norrie | 48c | 907$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.2 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Norrie | 47c | 858.8$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.9 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Norrie | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Norrie | 50c | 722.8$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.4 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Norrie | 49c | 715$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.65 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked Norrie | 52c | 599.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 48cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Norrie | 53c | 509.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.33 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Cazaux | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Cazaux | 60c | 499.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.87 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Norrie | 40c | 400$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Norrie | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Cazaux | 50c | 338.52$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Norrie | 49c | 267.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.1 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Cazaux | 51c | 265.81$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Norrie | 46c | 217.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.26 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Cazaux | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Cazaux | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Norrie | 48c | 158.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…0684backed Cazaux | 64c | 156.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Norrie | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Norrie | 52c | 153.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Cazaux | 46c | 108.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Cazaux | 53c | 105$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Norrie | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Cazaux | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 650 | 40%260 W · 390 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Cazaux | 52c | 99.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Cazaux | 47c | 93.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Cazaux | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Cazaux | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cazaux | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Norrie | 63c | 46.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cazaux | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cazaux | 55c | 41.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Norrie | 50c | 40.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cazaux | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Norrie | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Norrie | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Norrie | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…8b5dbacked Norrie | 73c | 25.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Norrie | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…126ebacked Cazaux | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.