Premier League · resolved market
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-01-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76bd6bb7fab64792538c4751e0aa5aae3c0f3c1736aab9f64241b5847383fe25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 26c | 1,660$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.29 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 45c | 1,220$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.21 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 55c | 569$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.05 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cc…3a42backed Yes | 56c | 537.46$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 5c | 524$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 173 | 27.2%47 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Yes | 54c | 370.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 38c | 250.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Yes | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…45e7backed Yes | 54c | 185.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 186 | 46.8%87 W · 99 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 17c | 130.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 423 | 24.3%103 W · 320 L | -36.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 47c | 94.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Yes | 56c | 89.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…6832backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8f…9a78backed No | 47c | 53.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…ffa1backed Yes | 54c | 49.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…ccdbbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa0…ab7dbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5c…0165backed Yes | 55c | 33.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 44c | 29.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 292 | 59.2%173 W · 119 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…51d1backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 170 | 47.6%81 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-01-10?this page
- Will Cambridge United FC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Cambridge United FC win on 2026-01-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.