Will Lucas Paquetá be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76c8a90545aa7143873dc68bc53ad5167e56aee488d86033ccad425194249bfe

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,132
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,132 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0f4f…1bd9backed No	37c	977.46$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.93	45	35.6%16 W · 29 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-18%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xceab…dce7backed Yes	75c	644.83$482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.63	544	50.6%275 W · 269 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed No	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9e…6838backed No	37c	567.91$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x99a5…bac4backed Yes	55c	457.64$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.86	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x230b…7409backed Yes	76c	325$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.3	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a87…89eabacked Yes	79c	126.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.25	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8647…d870backed No	25c	73.91$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.48	64	43.8%28 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b62…4349backed Yes	75c	66.67$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.67	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d9e…4debbacked Yes	65c	59.78$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.78	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes	29c	51.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.9	130	44.6%58 W · 72 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2815…7f0cbacked No	79c	31.65$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	169	54.4%92 W · 77 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4692…242cbacked Yes	76c	27.95$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.77	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes	70c	24.34$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	198	74.7%148 W · 50 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	74cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	67c	20.87$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.88	218	37.2%81 W · 137 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lucas Paquetá be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event