South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76cd26089cce198426638fa8e946d6a0b141f569ac3c6496abeb0c0751907a98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 50c | 3,710$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.07 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Over | 72c | 1,389$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.89 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 33c | 1,176$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.64 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 1,140$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.62 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90b…5ca7backed Over | 77c | 645.5$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 28c | 550$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 71c | 541.24$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.96 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 31c | 505.08$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.04 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 28c | 417.73$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.97 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 400.55$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.31 | 724 | 50.6%366 W · 358 L | -24.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 29c | 332.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 31c | 328.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 71c | 323.94$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 65c | 276.37$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 216 | 38.4%83 W · 133 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…be8bbacked Over | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 75c | 265.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 771 | 51.4%396 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 59c | 186$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | +13.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 35c | 176$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 75c | 161.73$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc12…c741backed Over | 69c | 149.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 18c | 112.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 24c | 106.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 16c | 73.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 40c | 61.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Under | 30c | 59.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 74c | 58.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Over | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…c691backed Under | 31c | 51.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ff…94f0backed Over | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 73c | 36.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 49c | 34.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 65c | 31.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 72c | 30.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 65c | 29.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…9b6cbacked Over | 71c | 26.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6862…5ee8backed Over | 78c | 18.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 69c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5this page
- CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Under won
- CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)SE Palmeiras won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.