Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76f85c65c463e25748f2f2d50acfc147578d26df79df37288d0d46cd8c7e5c51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70c5…457fbacked Yes | 80c | 10,000$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 28c | 6,177$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.22 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 13c | 4,750$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.09 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 20c | 3,941$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.05 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 73c | 2,555$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.63 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4d…254ebacked Yes | 53c | 2,238$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.15 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 20c | 2,041$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.14 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked No | 24c | 1,921$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.72 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed No | 19c | 1,585$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.45 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 10c | 1,566$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.79 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa524…1252backed Yes | 32c | 1,344$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.75 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 13c | 1,243$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.11 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed No | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 68c | 887.74$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.47 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 32c | 757$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 71c | 663.99$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.09 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed No | 23c | 611.22$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 32c | 587.5$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.5 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 16c | 524.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked No | 4c | 331.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 67c | 328.48$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.28 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 68c | 290$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 26c | 285.56$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 72c | 255.83$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 75c | 225.75$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 62c | 199.06$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 32c | 183.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 78c | 155.94$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 24c | 130.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 50c | 124.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 79c | 89.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 13c | 87.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…993dbacked No | 23c | 65.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 62c | 57.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +8.8wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x786c…a94abacked Yes | 79c | 49.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 25c | 47.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed No | 46c | 43.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 31c | 38.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 37c | 36.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Yes | 55c | 34.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 79c | 26.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…de7cbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…4710backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92b…f80bbacked Yes | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…f53abacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676f…3c14backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86e…8dfcbacked Yes | 79c | 18.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2473…ed2bbacked Yes | 69c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-24?this page
- Will Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-01-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.