Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
USC Trojans vs. Michigan Wolverines
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x773b950082ae7f9009e9175d1aa82c88193790afaabca272762bd3595fdce413
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof USC Trojans, Michigan Wolverines
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked USC Trojans | 0c | 9,431$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed USC Trojans | 10c | 8,365$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.7 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83a…6bfcbacked USC Trojans | 6c | 4,685$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed USC Trojans | 6c | 4,501$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 140 | 27.1%38 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4385…dbc4backed USC Trojans | 4c | 4,500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3f…3445backed USC Trojans | 6c | 3,449$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…5804backed USC Trojans | 6c | 3,215$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…617dbacked USC Trojans | 5c | 1,962$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed USC Trojans | 4c | 1,740$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 301 | 39.2%118 W · 183 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed USC Trojans | 6c | 1,725$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked USC Trojans | 9c | 1,346$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed USC Trojans | 6c | 1,251$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…749abacked USC Trojans | 4c | 1,246$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…9a00backed USC Trojans | 5c | 1,138$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842e…d9f5backed USC Trojans | 9c | 1,094$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked USC Trojans | 5c | 1,076$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 94 | 12.8%12 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed USC Trojans | 4c | 1,048$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked USC Trojans | 5c | 1,039$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked USC Trojans | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked USC Trojans | 4c | 640.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…79bebacked USC Trojans | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…5bb9backed USC Trojans | 5c | 479.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed USC Trojans | 8c | 474.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0155…a6ffbacked USC Trojans | 5c | 456.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed USC Trojans | 9c | 450.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed USC Trojans | 4c | 429.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed USC Trojans | 6c | 397.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 114 | 39.5%45 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…2f0dbacked USC Trojans | 4c | 392.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4eedbacked USC Trojans | 5c | 392.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed USC Trojans | 14c | 388.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed USC Trojans | 5c | 334$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…7cc8backed USC Trojans | 5c | 280$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed USC Trojans | 9c | 135.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.