MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x773bbd4060e4fa99f3cbd4d320ae5709be98627c1f4facba499932ad21dd12c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 19c | 3,115$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 1,739$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 48c | 1,388$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.5 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…6516backed Over | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 45c | 426.27$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 11c | 156.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 28c | 146.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 13c | 142.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c49…c6c2backed Under | 38c | 136.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 59c | 126.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 28c | 117.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 64c | 101.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Over | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…8732backed Over | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -84%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 49c | 70.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 52c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 48c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Over | 49c | 50.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 42c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…b898backed Under | 44c | 45.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 61c | 27.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.