MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x600b08997c6fddf5bdb27e65a22b597801112c20845a6caad9406a8c81cba7e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 35c | 9,572$3,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,374.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 36c | 2,453$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 2,381$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.95 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 37c | 1,639$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.43 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Houston Astros | 4c | 1,157$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 1c | 1,044$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 745.98$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.11 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 37c | 710.17$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.18 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 706$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.28 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 2c | 478.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Houston Astros | 26c | 466.32$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 465.88$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Houston Astros | 7c | 379.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Houston Astros | 28c | 285$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Houston Astros | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 222.47$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 37c | 190.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Houston Astros | 36c | 138.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 119.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 118$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 107.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 102$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 89.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Houston Astros | 39c | 85.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Minnesota Twins | 70c | 70.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 65.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 61.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 58.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 33c | 58.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Minnesota Twins | 70c | 52.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins | 67c | 51.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 33.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 28.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.