MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb77495036d0321e86d52d33302315ae73b95f1e51ae9863ccb21b80038e6ac93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 1,273$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.87 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 1,029$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.52 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 59c | 723.85$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.25 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Houston Astros | 26c | 520$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.45 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 520$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.9 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 32c | 282.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 219.75$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 176.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.04 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Houston Astros | 12c | 173.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 119$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 92.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 92.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Houston Astros | 32c | 73.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 67c | 70.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Houston Astros | 32c | 70.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 46c | 65.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 60.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Minnesota Twins | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 24.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Minnesota Twins | 46c | 22.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.