MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7a13d32b74371625ee234d216c126b2cf4e1ee757db3dceba6c219e648c5d9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 52c | 9,756$5,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,683.1 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 9,510$4,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,583.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 50c | 5,327$2,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,663.65 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 3,323$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 3,094$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.15 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 2,095$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 1,375$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.78 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 50c | 1,345$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.04 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 1,255$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.82 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 1,050$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 78c | 726.85$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 48c | 700$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Under | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 30c | 503.76$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 51c | 480$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Under | 26c | 418.15$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 342.01$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.15 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 50c | 297$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 49c | 238$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 49c | 204.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Over | 51c | 203.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 199$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 179.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 23c | 166.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 29c | 163.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Under | 27c | 161.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 128.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 31c | 97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 67c | 90.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 42c | 72.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 51c | 65.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 50c | 64.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Under | 35c | 64.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 24c | 58.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 79c | 53.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Under | 31c | 50.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Over | 50c | 46.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 44.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 40.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 49c | 40.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d58…42fdbacked Over | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 30.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Over | 51c | 28.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 50c | 21.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 69c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Over | 67c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.