Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7762ce299f371b12e3ffdff5d27f67b28df8ff7f3e500e9db2fba3f11c65e722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 20c | 3,613$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.23 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 14c | 1,358$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.31 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 16c | 1,048$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.03 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 10c | 762.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 712.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 699.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 28c | 486.54$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.41 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 5c | 483.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6c…07a1backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 399.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 13c | 378.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 17c | 353.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 19c | 316.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 15c | 302.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 298.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 67c | 297.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 285.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 38c | 284.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.44 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 282.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 16c | 272.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 266.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 13c | 240$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 237.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 7c | 217.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 16c | 204.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 200.43$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 6c | 199.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 11c | 175.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 18c | 120.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 77c | 107.09$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 102.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…1d3abacked Yes | 28c | 96.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…05aabacked Yes | 28c | 92.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 85.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…cb08backed Yes | 17c | 82.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 27c | 82.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 82.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 76c | 75.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…f49dbacked Yes | 25c | 74.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 71c | 71.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…cc45backed No | 80c | 68.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 19c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked Yes | 28c | 64.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 78c | 51.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 23c | 49.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 29c | 46.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 77c | 43.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 43.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…b011backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 76c | 32.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 29.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 28.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 75c | 28.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 26.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 73c | 25.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 80c | 23.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 60c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 77c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 71c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…bc23backed No | 78c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.