TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,086
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,086 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes33c2,418$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625.924,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked No62c1,153$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.4210843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes42c1,018$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.48151.9%42 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed No6c531.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6412228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes60c466.41$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.7542130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes37c447.27$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.5373927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes34c430.5$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.421,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes36c355.55$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.555,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes42c341.33$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.4811249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes49c332.86$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.84,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes20c315.08$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.061,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes34c304.89$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.681,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No67c297.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6581165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c295.72$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes16c250.4$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.9417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No21c241.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.957,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes37c202.83$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.878643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f9…e901backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105413%7 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed No14c195.81$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.422040%8 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes41c193.52$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3568335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No77c192.28$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.062,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c7…05aabacked Yes29c185.7$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.74955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No80c160.72$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5842469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb557…634cbacked Yes58c158.6$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.411844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed Yes69c155.55$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6314659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3f1…c252backed Yes35c150$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes80c146.61$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.595,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes34c137.04$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.3349941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed No54c133.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3511038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c132.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.367,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No30c130.62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7658422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked No77c127.28$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.676240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes41c125.73$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.381,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf955…30b3backed No36c121.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.79850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd082…b5e8backed Yes40c120.85$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.035556.4%31 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes34c110.68$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0526738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes43c110.13$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9225344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No49c108.14$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.364,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c102.34$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.523,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes38c102.27$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1217536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes30c101.68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7170133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c101.14$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No57c89.1$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8320353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda26…8fefbacked Yes42c85.64$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.671353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes34c84.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.633,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c68…7936backed Yes65c81.01$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4610784.1%90 W · 17 L+30.1wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+66%equal weight75+0.23 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No52c75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdeb8…c271backed Yes59c73.64$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes38c73.38$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2229835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes39c71.48$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.640739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes30c64.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5257747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed Yes19c60.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1310444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1009…3c2bbacked No77c60.09$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.27933.3%3 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-57.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes21c60.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.396825%17 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed No69c58.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6920838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No71c58.87$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.61,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed No49c57.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.341770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+42.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes68c53.68$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.122,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…7adabacked Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+129.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x087c…5f66backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes58c49.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.614941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf8c…29ddbacked Yes77c49.15$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2546444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes23c47.85$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.041,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes45c47.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9914833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b0…6be2backed Yes22c45.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+122.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed5…ee90backed Yes42c45.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.521844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+39.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes60c43.19$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No69c42.19$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.131,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes36c42.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9911343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes28c41.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1839159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No25c41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.351,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0638…df07backed Yes70c40.79$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.081855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc9d…f963backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x683a…b3c3backed Yes36c38.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.55933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No78c38.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0370770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e7…04a6backed Yes38c37.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.964738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed Yes48c35.28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4838758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No69c33.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9719059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd475…35c5backed Yes34c32.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.74450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…89d2backed Yes38c32.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes41c32.28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.115,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0175…4264backed No80c30.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.669753.6%52 W · 45 L-12.2wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-19.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4087…9678backed No80c30.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.669553.7%51 W · 44 L-12.1wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-20.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No77c30.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.859361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9010…df3ebacked Yes61c30.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9914144%62 W · 79 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b81…82dbbacked Yes43c29.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.011942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes50c29.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.931,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaada…160bbacked Yes41c29.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.463548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No72c29.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9867336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xecc6…b97abacked Yes36c29.04$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5917536.6%64 W · 111 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No67c29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.434,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes56c28.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6225449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes43c28.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.434067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.